Does Consumption-Wealth Ratio Signal Stock Returns? : VECM Results for Germany

This paper studies the signalling effect of the consumption-wealth ratio (cay) on German stock returns via vector error correction models (VECMs). The effect of cay on U.S. stock returns has been recently confirmed by Lettau and Ludvigson with a two-stage method. In this paper, performances of the VECMs and the two-stage method are compared in both German and U.S. data sets. It is found that the VECMs are more suitable to study the effect of cay on stock returns than the two-stage method. Using the Conditional-Subset VECM, cay signals real stock returns and excess returns in both data sets significantly. The estimated coefficient on cay for stock returns turns out to be two times greater in U.S. data than in German data. When the two-stage method is used, cay has no significant effect on German stock returns. Besides, it is also found that cay signals German wealth growth and U.S. income growth significantly. --stock returns,consumption-wealth ratio,VECM

Panel data model comparison for empirical saving-investment relations

The low capital mobility among OECD countries, signalled by a high saving-investment (SI) relation and known as the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle, has triggered a lively discussion in the empirical literature. In this paper, we compare between, pooled, time and country dependent specifications of the SI relation via cross-validation criteria. It is found that the country dependent model is best performing among the four. Secondly, error correction models are uniformly outperformed by static panel models. Thirdly, via scatter diagrams of cross section specific estimates we observe a different time evolution of SI relations for developed and developing economies. --Saving-investment relation,Feldstein-Horioka puzzle,model comparison

Reviewing the sustainability/stationarity of current account imbalances with tests for bounded integration

We investigate for 26 OECD economies if their current account imbalances are driven by stochastic trends. Standard ADF results are contrasted with tests accounting for the bounded support of the current account. Neglecting the latter feature might give misleading results in the sense that ADF based conclusions are biased towards the rejection of unit root features. The current account imbalances are found to be bounded nonstationary for most OECD economies. Panel based test statistics confirm the bounded nonstationarity for these series. --Current account,bounded unit root tests

A functional coefficient model view of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle

What does the saving-investment (SI) relation really measure and how should the (SI) relation be measured? These are two of the most discussed issues triggered by the so called Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Based on panel data we introduce a new variant of functional coefficient models that allow to separate long and short to medium run parameter dependence. We apply the latter to uncover the determinants of the SI relation. Macroeconomic state variables such as openness, the age dependency ratio, government current and consumption expenditures are found to affect the SI relation significantly in the long run. --Saving-investment relation,Feldstein-Horioka puzzle,functional coefficient models

A new approach to bootstrap inference in functional coefficient models

We introduce a new, factor based bootstrap approach which is robust under heteroskedastic error terms for inference in functional coefficient models. Modeling the functional coefficient parametrically, the bootstrap approximation of an F statistic is shown to hold asymptotically. In simulation studies with both parametric and nonparametric functional coefficients, factor based bootstrap inference outperforms the wild bootstrap and pairs bootstrap approach according to its size features. Applying the functional coefficient model to a cross sectional investment regression on savings, the saving retention coefficient is found to depend on third variables as the population growth rate and the openness ratio. --Bootstrap,heteroskedasticity,functional coefficient models,Feldstein-Horioka puzzle

The Role of the Log Transformation in Forecasting Economic Variables

For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the original series are compared to forecasts based on logs. It is found that it depends on the data generation process whether the former or the latter are preferable. For a range of economic variables substantial forecasting improvements from taking logs are found if the log transformation actually stabilizes the variance of the underlying series. Using logs can be damaging for the forecast precision if a stable variance is not achieved.autoregressive moving average process, forecast mean squared error, instantaneous transformation, integrated process, heteroskedasticity

Screening of quark-monopole in N=4 plasma

We study a quark-monopole bound system moving in N=4 SYM plasma with a constant velocity by the AdS/CFT correspondence. The screening length of this system is calculated, and is smaller than that of the quark-antiquark bound state.Comment: 17 pages, reference and minor correction adde